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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Firm dollar, Chinese growth concerns hit US copper

NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. copper futures shed nearly 3 percent by the close on Monday as a stronger dollar and concerns about slowing Chinese growth prospects sparked further liquidation in the market, analysts said.

* Copper for December delivery HGZ8 settled down 6.30 cents, or 2.9 percent, at $2.1165 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division.

* The session range widened to $2.0970-$2.2645.

* On the charts, initial support in the benchmark December contract pegged at $2.04, followed by the psychological $2.00 level. Resistance eyed at last week's high at $2.5295 - traders.

* Spot October HGV8 fell 6.20 cents to close at $2.1190.

* COMEX estimated futures volume at 10,517 lots by 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT). Final volume on Friday totaled 13,806 lots.

* Open interest rose by 262 lots to 83,453 open contracts as of Oct. 17.

* Copper's losses tied to a U.S. dollar rebound against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before Congress endorsing another stimulus plan for the sluggish economy. [ID:nWEQ000308]

* In afternoon trade in New York, the euro was down 0.8 percent at $1.33 <EUR=>, near its session lows around $1.3287.

* A stronger U.S. currency tends to make dollar-priced metals less attractive to non-U.S. investors.

* Copper's weaker tone on Monday rooted in bearish macro-economic data from China, the world's leading metals consumer.

* China's annual GDP growth fell to 9.0 percent in the third quarter from 10.1 percent in the second, and factory output sank to a six-year low.

* China's September copper production rose 4.7 percent on the year to 317,000 tonnes. September copper output dropped 1 percent from August - The state bureau.

* Soft economic outlook forced Deutsche Bank to cut its commodity forecasts, trimming about 40 percent from its 2009 forecast for copper to just $4,161.

* Credit Suisse lowered its copper forecast from $4.00 to $2.50 per pound ($5,512 a tonne).

* "We now expect global GDP growth to slow to 1.2 percent in 2009. We expect energy and industrial metals will be the major casualties in this environment." - Deutsche Bank.

* London Metal Exchange (LME) copper warehouse stocks rose by 950 tonnes to 212,400 tonnes on Monday.

* COMEX copper stocks were off 177 short tons at 8,165 short tons as of Friday.

* Speculators trimmed their net short position in COMEX copper futures to 18,127 lots in the week ended Oct. 14, from 18,799 lots the previous week - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

* LME copper for three months delivery MCU3 was last quoted at $4,720/4,730 a tonne, after dealing in a session range of $4,661 and $4,950. 

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